A gradual shift in Iran's foreign policy has been underway since Hassan Rouhani came to office in 2013. There is no question that over the four years and after the agreement with the P5+1+EU on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran’s regional position has strengthened. But one of Iran's foreign policy problems is lack of proper attention to the countries of East Asia
Japan is one of major economic poles in the modern world whose political influence and defense power have been a focus of constant attention for military and academic circles for a number of years. The reality, however, is that we know very little about position of this country in global equations as well as its defense power. For example, we do not yet exactly know what is Japan’s approach to Iran? What can be said in this regards is that just in the same way that most analysts have admitted that relations between Iran and China are actually tripartite given the influence the United States exerts on those relations, the same is true about Iran’s relations with Japan on an even greater scale. At the same time, despite territorial disputes with China and the lingering memory of the nuclear catastrophe caused by atomic bombardment of Hiroshima and Nagasaki by the United States, Japan enjoys the highest volume of trade exchanges with these countries
Economy is considered as a vital component of Japans’ large-scale policies and for many years, the country’s foreign policy at international level has been formulated on the basis of high impact of economy. The situation, however, has somehow changed since Shinzo Abe was elected as Japan’s prime minister in December 2012 and the country has been implementing plans to bring about major changes and developments in its defense structure. Since 2013, when Japan launched its national security council and published its first national security strategy, the country’s new defense doctrine, that is, “active participation in keeping peace” has been on the agenda of Japanese government. Tokyo has also suspended the ban on its arms exports, which had been in place for a number of decades. The point, which can be derived from these developments, is that “establishing peace through force” is another meaning of this policy. This issue has been pursued more diligently through interpretation of Article 9 of the country’s constitution by Japanese cabinet in July 2015. In the meantime, there have been a series of factors, which have pushed Japan toward models, which focus on deterrence power and self-defense. Those factors include the progress in North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs with the goal of enabling Pyongyang to carry out intercontinental nuclear attacks; remarks and moves by China to claim possession over disputed islands in East China Sea; and the show of force by China in the western part of the Pacific Ocean
In addition, Philippines, which is a country considered as the key to the United States’ military expansion in Southeast Asia, has been recently seeing a president, who is willing to distance the country from the United States and get it closer to China. On the one hand, Washington’s defense relations with Thailand, another age-old ally of the United States in that region, have been taking a downturn since a recent military coup d’état in the country. On the other hand, relations between the United States and South Korea, another important Asian ally of Washington, have been rocked and marked with high tension following a recent political scandal surrounding the South Korean president. All these instances have something to do with the United States one way or another. This is especially true under present circumstances following election of the new US President Donald Trump, which have added a new element to this lack of certainly regarding Japan’s national interests, and have caused Tokyo to insist on formulation of its new defense policy. In fact, the election of the new administration in the United States and the policy adopted by its president to give the highest priority to what is going on inside the country, have ranged the alarms for Japan. As a result, positions taken by Trump have led to questions and worries among officials in Tokyo about “reliability” of the new administration in Washington. For instance, in early 2016, Trump took part in an interview with the Fox News channel in which he pointed to developments in East Asia saying that North Korea has nuclear weapons and Japan has a problem with that country. Trump then added that maybe it was better for Japanese to defend themselves against North Korea
In view of Trump’s declared plan for his first 100 days in office, a first instance of which was withdrawal of the United States from the Pacific Ocean trade deal known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) through an executive order signed by Trump, one can say that Japan’s strategy may change course more toward independence. Of course, South Korea and Japan were destinations for the first foreign trip by US Secretary of Defense James Mattis. During his visit, Mattis did his best to remind the allies of the United States that Trump’s election campaign slogans about rejecting defense agreements with other countries were simply slogans and were not supposed to be put into action. However, if there is even a slight chance that there would be uncertainty in relations between Tokyo and Washington, that uncertainty could be taken advantage of to extend relations between Iran and Japan to areas beyond energy and trade. Without a doubt, one of those areas of cooperation, which are of interest to Iran, is the area of defense technology and cooperation. However, there is also no doubt that further expansion and strengthening of political and defense ties between Iran and Japan is generally a function of a favorable international atmosphere and the role played by the United States as a variable, and it can pave the way for cooperation between the two countries in other areas
In order to continue their alliance with the United States, Japanese officials have one logical reason, which is to maintain the balance of power with China. Given the existing territorial disputes between the two countries in East China Sea, Tokyo can be only hopeful about preserving its strategic interests through alliance with Washington. Therefore, this alliance will sometimes force Japan to accept certain policies, which are at times at loggerheads with the country’s main policies. Therefore, it is a known fact that Japanese officials are currently following the US policies even more ardently than European countries. However, conditions created following the conclusion of Iran’s nuclear deal with the P5+1 group of countries, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), have raised optimism and new hopes among Iranian officials. In the meantime, the first necessary condition for organizing the two countries’ defense relations is to provide grounds for development of defense ties at bilateral or regional levels. The reason for this should be found in large-scale policies of Japan, the special quality of Iran’s policies in the region and the world, as well as the effect and impact of the United States on regional equations. In addition, Shinzo Abe expects Iran to cut military ties with North Korea and refrain from purchasing weapons from that country. Abe had talked with Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani about this issue during a meeting in September on the sidelines of the annual session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York
Therefore, what we so far know is that Iran and Japan have certain differences from the viewpoint of their foreign relations, but they can still proceed up to forming an alliance in certain fields. Just for the same reason that Iran is China’s close friend, but does not allow tensions between Tokyo and Beijing to affect Tehran's relations with Tokyo, Japan is also a friend of the United States, but it practically moves against Washington’s viewpoint when it says is willing to consult with Iran over West Asia affairs. China has common, though vague, interests with Iran for the construction of the new Silk Road, but it is a natural rival for Iran when it takes part in development of Gwadar port in Pakistan. On the other hand, by showing interest in developing Iran’s Chabahar port, which is a few kilometers away from Pakistan’s Gwadar port, India and Japan become natural allies of Iran in this special case. It follows that the area of marine trade is one of the most important fields in which Iran and Japan can boost their relations. Such cooperation can be expanded in the area of shipping and fighting piracy, and it can even be assumed optimistically that Iran will be finally able to develop its naval military fleet with the help of Japan and further shore up its defense diplomacy
At the present time, Japan stands the eighth among the world countries in terms of military spending. According to a report published by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) in April 2016, Japan spent about 41 billion dollars on its defense sector in 2015. The country also boasts the world’s fourth biggest marine fleet as well as the best and most powerful naval force in Asia with 114 warships and more than 22 submarines, which is far bigger than the developing navy of China. Japan’s aerospace specialists launched the country’s first military communication satellite into space on January 24, 2016, using H-II (H2) rocket, aka Sparkle, as carrier. Since about 80 percent of Japan’s needed oil passes through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, if the administration of US President Donald Trump makes a decision to lower its presence in the Persian Gulf, Japan will not be willing for that void to be filled by China’s naval fleet. The issue, which has stirred concerns among Japanese officials, is that to carry out its military maneuvers, China has advanced as far as the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean and has even embarked on establishing a naval base in Djibouti
At the present time, Iran is the most secure country in West Asia and a good supply source for providing world with energy. On the other hand, due to its high energy demand, Japan is very interested in interacting with Iran in the field of oil and gas. This country is the third consumer and importer of crude oil in the world following the United States and China and is also the biggest importer of liquefied natural gas (LNG)
Iran can take advantage of Japan’s energy demand to good effect. However, to achieve this goal Tehran will need to do away with the problem of uncertainty in its foreign policy. This means that the longstanding hostility between Tehran and Washington and some other Western capitals has continuously sent this message to the rest of the world that Tehran lacks reliable options at international level and due to its isolation it lacks the bargaining power the countries usually have. China’s surprising opposition to Iran’s membership at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) during the latest meeting of this regional body in Tashkent, the capital city of Uzbekistan, was a clear instance of this trend. This comes at a time that China is involved in large-scale arms deals with Arab countries of the Persian Gulf, especially Saudi Arabia, who are known by Iran as rival and sources of threat. Even the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Kuwait, who are natural allies of the United States in the Persian Gulf, have complicated military relations with North Korea, who is an adversary to the United States. Therefore, marginalization of Japan in strategic calculations of Iran and Tokyo’s unwillingness to boost Iran ties due to Tehran's increasing hostility toward the West, especially the United States, have practically deprived Iran of the possibility to boost relations with Japan as a powerful country in the field of defense technology
Therefore, in view of these conditions and limitations that exist in Iran’s relations with Japan, talking about possibility of establishing defense relations between the two countries would seem too simplistic. However, if suitable conditions are provided and international atmosphere improves in a way to allow for a visit to Iran by Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe – which would be unprecedented following the Islamic Revolution in Iran – the first steps after that can be taken through promotion of political relations and expansion of trade ties between the two countries. Subsequently, it would be time to form various working groups and launch some form of dialogue mechanism, which would finally lead to “strategic dialogue,” in order to regulate the two countries’ legal, institutional and functional mechanisms and make sure that these relations will not be affected by a third country, like the United States, as it happened in the past. If these conditions are provided, the first subsequent step could be an invitation from Iran’s Navy commander to his Japanese counterpart to pay a visit to Iran. Later steps could include conducting joint military missions and maneuvers to fight marine piracy and ensure security of energy transit lines through the Indian Ocean
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